US China Tariff Truce: A Family Office Positioning Brief
The word "truce" once implied finality. In 2025, it has come to mean "see you in ninety days." On August 11, the Trump administration signed another executive order extending the US China tariff truce, pushing expiry to 12:01 a.m. Eastern on November 10. Both governments followed with a joint statement confirming the ninety-day architecture that emerged from the May Geneva talks: twenty-four percentage points of additional tariffs suspended, ten percentage points retained, on both sides. For family offices, this extension removes a near-term tail risk without resolving the structural one. It buys roughly 30% US tariffs on Chinese imports and 10% Chinese tariffs on US goods for another quarter, rather than a snap return to triple-digit rates that would approximate a trade embargo. The investment question is no longer "what happens in August." It becomes "what posture makes sense going into November 10, and which signals between now and then should m...